Aussie marches toward 0.7200
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Oil prices above $50 a barrel |
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FOMC Meeting Minutes released |
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Employment Data for the US due out tonight |
Market Update
Exceptionally low interest rates are set to remain for the best part of 2009 the Federal Reserve announced this morning. Severe downward pressure remains with the Central Bank prepared to flood the flailing economy with money to stimulate activity. The USD pared back gains against a basket of currencies after the announcement. AUDUSD received a helping hand again overnight from renewed risk appetite and a weaker US Dollar marching towards 0.7200.
More weak data from the states did little to help the USD recover lost ground. Pending Home Sales were well below expectations at -4.0% vs. -0.9%, whilst manufacturing data still showed a contraction at 40.6 despite being slightly better than the expected 36.9.
Oil prices fell away yesterday below $49 a barrel sparking a wave of profit taking as the weak US data loomed. Geopolitical tensions around the world helped push prices back above $50 a barrel overnight. The conflict in Gaza has been seen as supportive for oil prices, whilst it does not directly affect oil supplies the Middle East region pumps about a third of the worlds supply. Natural Gas supplies to parts of Europe were also disrupted as tensions between Russia and the Ukraine over supplies mimicking disputes three years ago have again raised questions about Russia’s reliability as an energy exporter.
Further poor data out of the UK capped the sterling’s gains vs. the Euro after its recovery from a fall towards parity. Housing prices have again fallen below expectations at -2.5% vs. -1.5%. On a more positive note UK PMI data edged higher from record lows above the expected 39.0 being released at 40.2. Tomorrow night the Central Bank will look at a pending rate cut for the UK, with the market pricing in a 50bp cut.
Tonight will see more employment data out of the States with a further contraction expected. Domestically tomorrow will see Building approvals and Trade Balance figures released.
Trading Range
0.7150-0.7250
Current Weeks Releases
| Local Data |
Due |
Exp |
Prev |
|
AU Retail Sales Trend
|
Wed |
- |
0.2% |
| NZ Trade Balance |
Wed |
-838M |
-942M |
| AU Building Approvals |
Thur |
-1.3% |
-5.4% |
| AU Trade Balance |
Thur |
2.15B |
2.95B |
|
| International Data |
Due |
Exp |
Prev |
| UK Construction PMI |
Mon |
30.5 |
31.8 |
| UK Nationwide HPI |
Tue |
-1.5% |
-0.4% |
| UK Services PMI |
Tue |
39.0 |
40.1 |
| EU Final Services PMI |
Tue |
42.0 |
42.0 |
| US Non-Manufacturing PMI |
Wed |
36.8 |
37.3 |
| US Pending Home Sales |
Wed |
-0.8% |
-0.7% |
| US FOMC Meeting Minutes |
Wed |
- |
- |
| ECB President Trichet speaks |
Wed |
- |
- |
| EU German WPI |
Wed |
-1.7% |
-3.3% |
| EU German Unemployment Change |
Wed |
10K |
-10K |
| EU PPI |
Wed |
-1.1% |
-0.8% |
| US Non-Farm Employment Change |
Thur |
-450K |
-250K |
| CHF CPI |
Thur |
-0.3% |
-0.7% |
| CHF Unemployment |
Thur |
2.8% |
2.7% |
| EU German Trade Balance |
Thur |
13.6B |
15.8B |
| EU Consumer Confidence |
Thur |
-26 |
-25 |
| EU Unemployment Rate |
Thur |
7.8% |
7.7% |
| UK Official Bank Rate |
Thur |
1.5% |
2.0% |
| US Unemployment Claims |
Fri |
540K |
492K |
| UK Manufacturing Production |
Fri |
-0.5% |
-1.4% |
| UK PPI Input |
Fri |
-2.0% |
-3.3% |
| CAD Employment Change |
Fri |
-21.0K |
-70.6K |
| CAD Unemployment Rate |
Fri |
6.5% |
6.3% |
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| By Tara McGoldrick Senior Corporate Foreign Exchange Dealer |
| Send a message |
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